Coffee Market Heading Into 2026: How to Buy Green Coffee Smarter (Next 1–8 Weeks)
As we enter 2026, the global coffee market is moving fast. Prices are reacting to weather surprises, logistics shifts, and origin-level supply changes. For buyers who import physical green coffee by container into the Middle East (CIF Jebel Ali), the next few weeks are all about timing, risk control, and securing reliable supply at the right levels.
At MRGT, we monitor the market daily and translate it into practical procurement decisions for physical shipments — not speculative trading.
What’s Moving Coffee Prices Right Now?
1) Weather risk is back on the table
Recent market updates highlight how heat waves in Brazil and flooding in Indonesia can quickly tighten supply expectations and push futures higher. These weather headlines often move prices faster than fundamentals in the short term.
2) Vietnam supply is improving — but the market is still tight
Vietnam remains the world’s key robusta supplier. Recent reporting (based on USDA/FAS data) indicates Vietnam’s 2025/26 robusta output is expected to rise, with exports forecast to increase as well. At the same time, stock visibility remains limited and farmers closely watch futures pricing, which can reduce immediate selling when they expect higher prices.
3) Harvest pressure + better weather outlook can pull prices down
When fresh harvest flows are strong and weather conditions improve, the market often corrects. That’s why buyers should avoid chasing spikes unless they have confirmed downstream demand.
The Practical Question: Where Are Prices Likely to Go in the Next 1–8 Weeks?
No one can guarantee exact prices, but based on current conditions:
Next 1–2 weeks: likely range trading with volatility (fast ups/downs on headlines).
Next 1–2 months: direction depends mainly on Brazil weather, Vietnam export pace, and logistics stability.
In simple terms:
If weather stays “normal” and exports continue, the market usually cools down.
If weather turns unfavorable (heat/drought/flood), prices can jump quickly.
How MRGT Thinks About Buying Physical Coffee (Container Strategy)
Here’s the approach we use for physical green coffee procurement:
✅ 1) Avoid emotional buying during spikes
If prices jump on a headline, we don’t chase immediately. We check if it’s:
a short-lived weather scare, or
a real supply disruption that will impact shipments 30–60 days ahead.
✅ 2) Buy in tranches, not in one shot
Instead of buying 100% at one price, we split the purchase:
First tranche: secure baseline supply
Second tranche: buy on pullbacks
Third tranche: only if a real bullish trigger confirms
This protects your average cost and reduces regret.
✅ 3) Compare origin offers versus market reality
A “good deal” is not just a low number — it’s a competitive price relative to market futures + origin differentials + logistics + quality.
Current Offers: How to Interpret Them (Buyer Mindset)
When you receive offers like:
Vietnam Robusta Wet Polish Screen 18
Indonesia Java / EK1
India Cherry AA / PB
Colombia Supremo
Brazil Rio / Fine Cup Cerrado
The key question is always:
Am I paying a fair premium for quality/origin, or am I overpaying because the seller is pricing fear?
In today’s environment:
Vietnam robusta often provides the most efficient cost-to-supply balance for large-volume buyers.
Indonesia can be excellent but sometimes includes heavy premiums.
Colombia and Brazil fine cup can be strong value for roasters focused on flavor, but you must match it to your customer’s segment.
What Smart Buyers Should Do Now (Actionable)
If you are importing green coffee to the Middle East:
Secure your baseline supply for Q1 (Jan–Mar) early
If you wait too long and weather turns, your replacement cost can jump.Negotiate booking prices aggressively
If you’re booking Jan shipments, push for a price that reflects current market softness when available.Stay flexible on origin when possible
If a seller’s premium is unjustified, switch origin or grade — especially when your end-market is price-sensitive.
Why Buyers Work With MRGT
At Mehran Reisi General Trading (MRGT), we offer:
Direct sourcing from trusted origins
Container-scale supply for green coffee
Transparent communication and reliable execution
Middle East-focused logistics experience (CIF Jebel Ali and regional delivery)
Want Today’s Best Offer for Your Target Origin?
If you send us:
Origin preference (Vietnam / Indonesia / India / Brazil / Colombia)
Grade/spec (e.g., Robusta Screen 18 Wet Polish)
Target quantity (containers)
Delivery term (CIF Jebel Ali / FOB, etc.)
We’ll respond with:
the best workable price
shipment window options
and a quick “buy now vs wait” recommendation based on market conditions.
Contact MRGT today to secure stock for January–March shipments.
