wo weeks ago we wrote: Dry, warm Brazil keeps Arabica buoyant—buy dips on any “rain” headline; Robusta likely range-bound into Vietnam’s harvest. Since then, Arabica (KC Dec-25) advanced roughly ~10% (≈377 → 413–414 c/lb) while Robusta stayed firm (~$4,300 → ~$4,570/t). Our “buy the dips, watch the clouds” call held up for Arabica; Robusta proved tighter than a classic harvest ceiling but broadly aligned with our caution.
What We Said vs. What Happened
Verification snapshot (last ~2 weeks): numbers vs. our call.
چی گفتیم / چی شد
اسنپشاتِ تأیید (دو هفتهٔ اخیر): عددها در برابرِ پیشبینی.
جمعبندی کوتاه: عربیکا حدود ۱۰٪+ (۳۷۷ → ۴۱۳–۴۱۴ سنت/پوند) و روبوستا حدود ۶٪+ (۴٫۳ → ۴٫۵۷ هزار دلار/تن)؛ دیپهای خبرِ باران کوتاه، روند غالب صعودی.
Why It Worked (and What Changed)
- Stocks & Flows > Weather: Exceptionally low certified stocks kept Arabica supported; rain forecasts sparked only short-lived pullbacks.
- Momentum After Breakouts: New highs encouraged follow-through buying and risk management flows.
- Harvest vs. Tightness: Vietnam’s harvest added supply, but broader tightness and logistics kept Robusta supported.
MRGT Playbook (Physical Containers Only)
- Arabica (Washed Milds / Colombia & Centrals): Keep ladder-in on weakness. Scale purchases on rain-driven dips; avoid chasing single prints.
- Robusta (VN SC-18 & peers): Use harvest competition to negotiate, but maintain alternate origins/sellers in case rains slow picking or logistics tighten.
- Ops: Split programs into 3 waves across the month (e.g., Week 1 / Week 3 / Week 4). Use freight/FX windows to offset elevated flat prices.
- Risk Watchlist: Exchange stocks trend, Brazil 10–14d rainfall, Vietnam harvest pace, port/trucking bottlenecks, and policy/freight shocks.