Arabica vs. Robusta: A 30-Day Tug-of-War
Dry, warm Brazil is keeping Arabica buoyant (expect dips on any “rain” headline). Robusta faces a “ceiling” as Vietnam heads into harvest—unless weather slows picking. Read on for a practical 1–2 week view and a 30-day playbook for container buyers.
The 1–2 Week Snapshot
Arabica (ICE New York): Still wearing a bullish jacket, but zipping it up and down with every weather update. Low certified stocks are doing the heavy lifting; any meaningful rain forecast in Brazil can spark quick pullbacks.
Robusta (ICE London): Range-bound with a slight supply tilt. Vietnam’s harvest rhythm caps rallies, though sticky rains or logistics hiccups can throw a short, sharp party.
Translation from market-speak: Arabica = “buy the dips, watch the clouds.”
Robusta = “expect range, watch the rain.”
The 30-Day Map
Arabica: Low exchange stocks + ongoing concern around Brazil’s bloom quality keep the path of least resistance pointed up. Expect choppy stair-steps: brief corrections on “rain” headlines, then a grind higher if dryness persists.
Robusta: As fresh Vietnamese beans arrive, natural supply increases tend to press on prices. Still, don’t sleep on weather-related bumps—short squeezes can pop up if harvest pace slows.
What Could Flip the Script?
Weather: Broad, measurable rains in Brazil (Arabica) or prolonged wet spells in Vietnam (Robusta).
Stocks & Flows: Sudden rebuild (NY/London) cools Arabica; delays at ports/trucking bottlenecks can juice Robusta.
Macro/Trade: Surprise policy shifts or freight shocks—rare, but when they land, they land loud.
MRGT Playbook for Container Buyers
Arabica (Washed Milds, Colombia/Centrals, etc.)
Approach: Ladder-in on weakness. Scale purchases on rain-driven dips.
Hedge Hygiene: Keep light protective coverage if you’re timing multiple shipments—volatility is not shy.
Robusta (Vietnam SC-18 and peers)
Approach: Shop the range. Use harvest-season competition to negotiate.
Plan B: Maintain alternate sellers/origins to dodge any harvest-rain logjams.
Pro move: Split your program into three waves (Week 1, Week 3, Week 4) with flexibility to shift size if weather headlines turn the dial.
