When Stocks Beat Weather: Our 1–2 Week Coffee Map, Verified
wo weeks ago we wrote: Dry, warm Brazil keeps Arabica buoyant—buy dips on any “rain” headline; Robusta likely range-bound into Vietnam’s harvest. Since then, Arabica (KC Dec-25) advanced roughly ~10% (≈377 → 413–414 c/lb) while Robusta stayed firm (~$4,300 → ~$4,570/t). Our “buy the dips, watch the clouds” call held up for Arabica; Robusta proved tighter than a classic harvest ceiling but broadly aligned with our caution.
What We Said vs. What Happened
Verification snapshot (last ~2 weeks): numbers vs. our call.
| Item | Our call (1–2 weeks) | Outcome | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Item
Arabica (ICE KC Dec-25) Brazil dryness & rain-dip behavior |
Our call Buoyant on Brazil dryness; quick dips on “rain” headlines; low exchange stocks do the heavy lifting. | Outcome ~377 → ~413–414 c/lb (≈+9–10%). Brief pullbacks on rain chatter; trend stayed up. |
Read
✔️ Correct Direction + behavior matched |
|
Item
Robusta (ICE London nearby) Vietnam harvest vs. tightness |
Our call Range-bound into Vietnam harvest; “ceiling” unless rains slow picking. | Outcome ~$4,300 → ~$4,570/t (≈+6%). Tightness limited the “ceiling”; range lifted. |
Read
➖ Partly right Firmer than a flat range |
چی گفتیم / چی شد
اسنپ‌شاتِ تأیید (دو هفتهٔ اخیر): عددها در برابرِ پیش‌بینی.
جمع‌بندی کوتاه: عربیکا حدود ۱۰٪+ (۳۷۷ → ۴۱۳–۴۱۴ سنت/پوند) و روبوستا حدود ۶٪+ (۴٫۳ → ۴٫۵۷ هزار دلار/تن)؛ دیپ‌های خبرِ باران کوتاه، روند غالب صعودی.
| آیتم | پیش‌بینیِ ما (۱–۲ هفته) | اتفاقِ واقعی | نتیجه |
|---|---|---|---|
| آیتمعربیکا (KC Dec-25) خشکیِ برزیل و دیپ‌های خبرِ باران |
پیش‌بینیصعودی با دیپ‌های مقطعی روی «خبرِ باران»؛ استاکِ پایینِ بورس محرکِ اصلی. | اتفاق۳۷۷ → ۴۱۳–۴۱۴ (≈۱۰٪+). عقب‌نشینی‌ها کوتاه ماند و روند بالا بود. | نتیجه✔️ درست جهت + رفتار مطابق |
| آیتمروبوستا (London nearby) برداشتِ ویتنام در برابرِ تنگیِ بازار |
پیش‌بینیرِنج با «سقفِ برداشت»؛ مگر بارندگی برداشت را کند کند. | اتفاق۴٫۳ → ۴٫۵۷ هزار دلار/تن (≈۶٪+). تنگیِ بازار سقف را بالاتر برد. | نتیجه➖ تا حدّی درست محکم‌تر از یک رِنجِ تخت |
Why It Worked (and What Changed)
Stocks & Flows > Weather: Exceptionally low certified stocks kept Arabica supported; rain forecasts sparked only short-lived pullbacks.
Momentum After Breakouts: New highs encouraged follow-through buying and risk management flows.
Harvest vs. Tightness: Vietnam’s harvest added supply, but broader tightness and logistics kept Robusta supported.
MRGT Playbook (Physical Containers Only)
Arabica (Washed Milds / Colombia & Centrals): Keep ladder-in on weakness. Scale purchases on rain-driven dips; avoid chasing single prints.
Robusta (VN SC-18 & peers): Use harvest competition to negotiate, but maintain alternate origins/sellers in case rains slow picking or logistics tighten.
Ops: Split programs into 3 waves across the month (e.g., Week 1 / Week 3 / Week 4). Use freight/FX windows to offset elevated flat prices.
Risk Watchlist: Exchange stocks trend, Brazil 10–14d rainfall, Vietnam harvest pace, port/trucking bottlenecks, and policy/freight shocks.
