Brazil’s changing coffee export mix: separate Arabica and Conilon bids

Brazil’s coffee-export headline is useful context, but it is not a buying specification. A Gulf roaster seeking a repeatable Arabica base and a buyer testing canephora for a blend should not read the same shipment total as the same purchasing signal. The distinction matters when asking suppliers for comparable offers.

This review, published on 28 October 2026, uses Cecafé’s September release and the ICO’s September market report. Their observation periods differ; these are not live quotations or a report of today’s trading.

What the export figures actually show

Cecafé reports that Brazil shipped 3.894 million 60-kg bags of coffee in September 2026, up 3.1% year on year, while export revenue fell 7.1%. For January–September, Arabica exports reached 20.739 million bags, down 10.7%, and accounted for 71.3% of total coffee exports. Canephora—conilon and robusta combined—reached 5.162 million bags, up 68.3%, with a 17.7% share. The remaining share includes soluble and roasted coffee.

Those figures describe a changing export basket, not the price or quality of a particular green-coffee lot. A lower average export value cannot, by itself, establish that an unchanged Arabica specification has become cheaper.

Keep the comparison periods separate

The ICO provides a broader view: global green-bean exports in August 2026 rose 15.6% year on year to 10.94 million bags. Arabica represented 59.6% of cumulative green-bean exports for October 2025–August 2026, versus 63.5% in the comparable previous period. These global green-bean figures should not be directly compared with Cecafé’s January–September shares of Brazil’s exports across all coffee forms.

Our procurement reading is therefore narrower than “buy more robusta” or “wait for cheaper Arabica.” The reports justify reviewing separate buying options; they do not choose the right blend, grade or purchase date for an individual business.

Run two quotation tracks, not one generic Brazil enquiry

Start with the job the coffee must perform. For the Arabica track, describe the intended cup profile and the characteristics that must remain stable across deliveries. For the canephora track, state its proposed role in the recipe and the limits within which the roasting team is willing to test. Do not assume that a national export category is a uniform product.

Send both enquiries with a common comparison sheet: species, origin, process, crop, screen or grading basis, defect specification, moisture requirements, packing, quantity and shipment window. Ask suppliers to identify the offered lot and explain any substitution. A quote with fewer details may look simpler while leaving more questions unresolved.

Test the proposed saving in the cup

If a different component is being considered, compare it against the current recipe rather than against an abstract market average. Keep the reference sample, label the candidate clearly and record the roast settings and tasting conditions. Evaluate the coffee in its intended service format, including milk drinks when that is the product being sold.

Agree on acceptance criteria before seeing the final price. This helps separate a genuine alternative from a cheaper offer that does not meet the brief. A successful trial should lead to a written specification tied to the approved sample, not an automatic assumption that every future lot will perform identically.

Make the commercial comparison equally precise

For a Gulf destination, compare offers on the same currency, quantity, delivery basis and destination. State which freight, insurance, handling and other charges are included, and which remain to be confirmed. Record payment terms and quotation validity. Do not compare an origin price with a delivered offer as though both cover the same obligations.

Separate “available for quotation” from a confirmed allocation and shipment commitment. Ask what is reserved, what remains subject to approval and when the next decision is needed. This produces a more useful purchasing conversation than asking whether Brazilian coffee, as a whole, is getting cheaper.

The practical takeaway

Treat the export shift as a prompt to sharpen the buying brief, not to loosen it. Keep Arabica and canephora options distinct until samples, specifications and comparable commercial terms support a decision. For an MRGT enquiry, provide the intended use, destination and shipment window; the minimum order is one container, with current availability and commercial terms subject to the actual quotation.

For regional cup guidance and preparation details, explore our Brazil green coffee profile.

Sources

1. Cecafé — Brazil exports 3.9 million bags of coffee in September; up 3% from 2025 · Accessed 28 October 2026.
2. International Coffee Organization — Coffee Market Report – September 2026 · Accessed 28 October 2026.